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In a year full of European, national, and regional elections, the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) expects migration to be a pivotal topic. While many governments implement quick fixes ahead of their electoral cycles, opposition parties are tying their campaigns to migration-related promises. ICMPD’s 2024 Migration Outlook report forecasts record displacement levels resulting from war and conflict, leading to a further securitization of migration and offshoring of asylum procedures, as well as a rise in secondary movements. These developments are taking place while labour migration is ‘coming of age’ in Europe.

Last year, global migration trends saw an alarming surge in displacement, reaching a record number of 114 million due to escalating armed conflicts and heightened geopolitical tension. Preliminary data saw a 21.2% increase in EU asylum applications, indicating one million claims at the end of the year – the highest number since 2016 – foreshadowing an equally challenging situation in 2024.

Geopolitical dynamics had a significant impact on migration in 2023: military coups in Africa led to a rise in the irregular flow of migrants, which led to further EU external cooperation on migration. Domestic concerns led to a further securitization of migration in many of the world’s regions, for instance through widened repatriation and expulsion policies in countries like Pakistan, Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia. This trend is expected to continue in 2024 as well, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and raising the potential for secondary migration flows.

Twenty months after the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a military stalemate has emerged. This current situation suggests that neither Russia will be able to capture further Ukrainian territory, nor will Ukraine be able to reclaim large parts of the occupied regions in the near future. However, as witnessed in the spring and autumn of 2022, when the Ukrainian armed forces drove back Russian invaders, surprises cannot be ruled out. 

As of January 2024, 6.5 million Ukrainians seek shelter abroad, with 4.2 million in the EU (possibly fewer) and around 5 million remaining internally displaced, totalling 10.5 million. Within Ukraine, 17.6 million people require humanitarian assistance, even though the economy is slowly recovering. The overall situation for Ukrainians, both within and outside the country, is characterised by a protracted war and great uncertainty regarding the war’s outcome, their legal status in host countries and integration prospects.

Sustaining our beginning-of-the-year tradition, Jean-Louis De Brouwer (Director, European Affairs Program, Egmont Institute) and Ralph Genetzke (Director, ICMPD Brussels Mission) will convene again to assess the main lessons and migration policy developments of 2023 and offer their insights for the year ahead in a discussion moderated by Violeta Wagner (Regional Portfolio Manager, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, ICMPD).

Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts and crises across the EU’s neighbourhood, the European Council recently decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and grant EU candidate status to Georgia, while also reaffirming its commitment to the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkan states and calling for an acceleration of their accession process. The two panellists will address this historic decision from a migration policy perspective.

As 2023 comes to an end, we take the opportunity to reflect on our recent work and share our aspirations for the coming year.

Today, Europe experiences perhaps the greatest challenges since the end of the Second World War, in terms of the geopolitical situation and the complexities of flight and migration. Recent events have led commentators to speak of a turning point in world history and the evolvement of a fundamentally changing global geopolitical environment. The war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza crisis may be the most recent manifestations of this development, but are only the culmination of a trend that started more than ten years ago. Since then, the world has transitioned from a two-decades-long period of relative stability to increasing volatility and disruption. This change is characterised by a more competitive and less secure global environment, systemic rivalry between the world’s great powers, a multipolar or “poly-nodal” international order, weakened multilateralism and multilateral institutions, increasing state fragility, a growing number of violent conflicts, terrorism, hybrid threats, economic crises, weaponization of energy, food insecurity, climate change and pandemics.

On 7-8 November 2023, the Prague Process organised the Kick-off Workshop under the Thematic Component 2: Promoting readmission, voluntary return and sustainable reintegration, in Tirana, Albania. The first activity on the topic gathered return experts from 19 countries as well as representatives from the European Commission, Frontex, IOM, ICMPD and JCP.

Employment is a vital strategy for refugees from Ukraine seeking to rebuild their lives abroad or sustain themselves until it is safe to return. To this end, the first-ever activation of the EU Temporary Protection Directive provides for immediate access to the EU labour market for the over 4 million people who have registered under the scheme. However, this is not the only innovation that has emerged since the seismic events of spring 2022, and represents but the first step in facilitating the employment of refugees from Ukraine.

Upon the invitation of the Ministry of Justice of Georgia, the Prague Process organised the Workshop on the Potential of Digitalisation in the Migration Context in Tbilisi, Georgia, on 24-26 October 2023. The workshop gathered over 70 participants from 16 countries as well as the European Commission, EUAA, IOM, EU Delegation to Georgia, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and independent experts. It represented the first activity of the newly launched Prague Process Digital Lab, a designated area of work within the Prague Process Training Academy and Migration Observatory, which will explore digitalisation as a horizontal issue across the various thematic areas of the Prague Process Action Plan.

On 10-12 October 2023, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees of Germany (BAMF) in Nuremberg hosted a Prague Process Study Visit. This visit constituted the first activity of Thematic Component 3 (Asylum/Labour migration), bringing together asylum practitioners, decision-makers and policy officials responsible for asylum from 13 countries. It provided a comprehensive insight into the work of the BAMF, incl. the legislative framework, institutional setting, operational practices and various innovative approaches to overcome the manifold challenges confronted.

A Baseline Study on Migration Data Management in Azerbaijan has been published by the EU-funded MOBILAZE 2 project. The study was conducted by ICMPD and EU member states experts. The main objective of this study is to provide comprehensive insight into the current state and practices of migration data management in the Republic of Azerbaijan, with a particular focus on the existing procedures and tools available for data collection, analysis and application. The particular gaps and needs observed in this regard are then laid out and recommendations for improvement are given. The MOBILAZE 2 project team would like to thank all participating Azerbaijani state institutions who gave their valuable insight and recommendations for this study.