Enhancing cooperation among the Prague Process states

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Recording of the webinar: 'How many more Ukrainians could flee if Russia wins the war?'

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a significant displacement crisis, resulting in millions of Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands foreign residents and immigrants fleeing the country. As of early 2024, up to 10.8 mio persons remain displaced within and outside Ukraine. The potential for further displacement looms large if Russia gains more ground or if Ukraine loses the fight for its sovereignty. 

In this webinar, Dr Franck Düvell presented the latest Prague Process Policy Brief on forced migration from Ukraine. He outlined four potential war scenarios, each accompanied by corresponding forced migration flows, with the number of displaced individuals reaching up to 19 mio under the most severe scenario. These forecasts are based on a methodology, which demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in predicting the number of forcibly displaced in early 2022.

Watch the recording of the webinar in English here or in Russian here.

Read the Prague Process Policy Brief here in English and here in Russian. 

Speaker: Franck Düvell, PhD, Senior Researcher, Osnabruck University

Dr. Düvell is the coordinator of force migration and refugee research programme (FFVT) at the Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies (IMIS), Osnabruck University. He has over 25 years of experience in conducting and leading research, analysis and policy advice. He is an expert on international migration and in particular irregular, transit and forced migration, migration governance and international relations in the field of migration. His studies specifically focus at the countries on the periphery and in the wider neighbourhood of the EU. 

Moderator: Radim Žák, Dr. Phil., Head of Region EECA, ICMPD 

Dr. Žák is responsible for conceptualisation, development and implementation of regional strategies, as well as for the functioning of the Prague Process Secretariat involving 47 participating states, EU institutions, international organisations and other partners. He has extensive experience in practical co-operation with the Eastern Partnership countries, Central Asian states and Russia in addressing migration issues.  

The Prague Process Repository contains video recordings of all past webinars and policy talks.

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