Enhancing cooperation among the Prague Process states

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The Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) Migration Outlook presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2025. It also provides a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within, and from the region in 2026. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses selected developments across the twelve EECA countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research drawing on official statistics and publicly available data sources to ensure a grounded understanding of regional dynamics. 

The workshop on labour migration held in Brussels on 11-12 March brought together migration experts, policymakers and practitioners from across the Prague Process region. Amidst acute labour shortages, demographic change and shifting migration patterns, the discussions reflected a growing recognition that labour migration is a central component of economic and migration governance. Participants exchanged experiences on how countries are adapting their systems to attract foreign workers while ensuring fair conditions and effective regulation.

Opening the workshop, representatives of Belgium, Romania and the Cypriot EU Presidency emphasised that well-managed labour migration can benefit all sides, helping economies address workforce gaps, offering opportunities to migrants and supporting development in countries of origin. At the same time, they noted that these benefits depend on strong governance, fair recruitment practices and proper integration support.

On 24–26 February 2026, the Ministry of Interior of Hungary hosted a Prague Process study visit on border management in Budapest and Bácsalmás, bringing together 38 representatives from 15 participating states. Organised under Thematic Component 1 on preventing and fighting irregular migration and migrant smuggling, the visit offered a comprehensive platform for exchange on integrated border management, combining strategic discussions with hands-on operational insights.

As migration dynamics across the region continue to evolve, border management is increasingly required to respond to shifting routes, adaptive smuggling methods and emerging security risks. The exchanges throughout the visit underlined that effective border governance goes beyond control at external borders, requiring a comprehensive system that integrates prevention, risk analysis, inter-agency coordination, international cooperation and technological innovation.

This analytical report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows. Countries covered: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo*.

The analysis shows that governance-driven migration management - not fertility - is the decisive factor. In the EU Integration scenario, improved institutions, return migration and regulated labour inflows slow population loss. In the Isolation scenario, demographic decline accelerates, labour shortages intensify and dependence on poorly integrated foreign workers grows, alongside rising exposure to non-EU geopolitical actors. 

Jean-Louis De Brouwer and Malin Frankenhaeuser discussed the key migration policy developments of 2025 and shared their outlook for 2026. As the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum enters into application in June, Member States face a decisive phase marked by operational, legal and political challenges. Amidst the continued geopolitical instability in the EU’s neighbourhood and displacement from Ukraine, migration remains high on the EU’s agenda. Strategic priorities include strengthened migration management and border control, addressing irregular migration, expanding talent attraction and returns, and reinforcing external partnerships. The panellists assessed progress and remaining gaps in these areas and shared their expectations for 2026.

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