Western Balkans 2035: Demographic Resilience and Strategic Migration Planning under EU Integration and Isolation Scenarios
This analytical report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows. Countries covered: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo*.
The analysis shows that governance-driven migration management - not fertility - is the decisive factor. In the EU Integration scenario, improved institutions, return migration and regulated labour inflows slow population loss. In the Isolation scenario, demographic decline accelerates, labour shortages intensify and dependence on poorly integrated foreign workers grows, alongside rising exposure to non-EU geopolitical actors.