Serbia

Serbia was long characterised by large-scale emigration and, during 2015-2019, by its role as a major transit state on routes toward the EU. While these features remain relevant, inward migration has increased, reflected in the growing number of foreign nationals residing in Serbia for extended periods. The population has contracted steadily since 1998 due to negative natural increase and sustained emigration, notwithstanding recent inflows. Between 2015 and 2024, the number of inhabitants fell from 7.10 million to 6.59 million, a loss of over 7%, with a further 0.5% decrease recorded between 2023 and 2024.

National data on emigration, albeit incomplete, indicate an outflow of the population toward the EU, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. The government assumes a diaspora of up to five million persons, including around 600,000 living in Europe. UNDESA reported 963,307 Serbian emigrants in 2024, of whom 93.3% resided in Europe, primarily in Germany (32%), Austria (15%), France (10%) and Switzerland (7%).

Economic motives dominate contemporary emigration. Youth unemployment reached 23% among those aged 15-24 in 2024, far exceeding the overall rate of 8.6%, suggesting a strong push factor for young and early-career cohorts. Wage differentials with EU countries further encourage mobility, reducing incentives for return despite improved macroeconomic stability since the early 2000s. First-time permits issued to Serbian nationals in the EU increased from 39,232 in 2020 to 53,378 in 2023. In 2024, out of 46,560 first-time permits, 52% were granted for employment and 33% for family reasons. Croatia, Germany, and Slovenia were the main issuers on employment grounds, while Germany alone provided 53% of all family-related permits. Since 2020, Germany remains the single largest issuing country overall, even where recent issuance declined there and Slovakia and expanded in Croatia, Austria, and Slovenia. In Germany, the Western Balkans Regulation – expanded since 2023 to allow up to 50,000 entries annually regardless of formal qualifications – has eased access to the labour market and reinforced recruitment through private agencies. According to Serbian employment agencies, construction, hospitality, transport, and health sectors continue to show high demand for Serbian workers seeking temporary employment in the EU.

Mirroring these flows, the number valid residence permits held by Serbian citizens in the EU increased by over 23% from 427,743 in 2020 to a peak of 528,031 in 2023. Out of 524,051 valid permits in 2024, 32% were issued on family-related grounds, largely by Germany, while 29% were granted on other grounds, mainly by Austria. Permits linked to asylum and employment represented 20% and 17%, respectively, with Germany leading in both categories. Education permits remained marginal (1%), with Slovenia as the principal destination.

Family reunification has become a self-reinforcing channel, with established communities in Germany facilitating additional arrivals over time. Higher education abroad also remains relevant, driven by both education quality and subsequent labour-market access. The number of Serbian students abroad reached 17,220 in 2023, a modest 1.6% decrease from 2022, with Hungary, Germany, Austria, and Türkiye as the leading destinations. Protection-related mobility has weakened: 3,225 applications for international protection by Serbians were lodged in 2024 in EU Member States, 30.6% fewer than in 2023. Most claims were submitted in Germany (70.2%), France (15.5%) and Italy (3.6%).

The number of Serbian nationals detected as illegally present in the EU fell by 22.5% from 16,780 in 2020 to 13,010 in 2024, with most cases recorded in Hungary, Germany, and Austria. In parallel, enforcement of return intensified: EU Member States issued 6,455 return orders to Serbian citizens in 2024 (+14.7% compared with 2022), while 3,910 persons returned following an order to leave (+19.2% compared with 2020).

Immigration to Serbia, though previously limited, expanded rapidly in the early 2020s, climbing from 9,312 arrivals in 2020 to 41,273 in 2023. The 2023 flow was dominated by Russian (55.6%), Chinese (15.4%) and Indian citizens (4.9%), reflecting geopolitical business relocation and project-based labour recruitment. In 2024, first-time temporary residence permits fell to 34,131 (−24% from 45,112 in 2023) yet remained several times higher than in 2020-2021. Russians received 49% of new permits and dominated those granted for employment, family reunification and education, suggesting household relocation to Serbia, while Chinese and Indian nationals mostly received employment permits linked to corporate and infrastructure investments. Employment accounted for 55.1% of all first-time permits in 2024, reflecting domestic labour shortages and the growing presence of foreign investors, above all China. Chinese FDI rose sharply after 2018, reaching about €1.4 billion in 2022-2023, comparable to total EU investment (€1.46 billion), and Chinese companies now operate across strategic sectors such as steel, tyre production, energy, and renewables, a footprint closely mirrored by the increased number of Chinese residents and managerial staff. Education-driven mobility has also strengthened: 2,426 education-based permits were issued in 2024, up from 1,826 in 2023 and 561 in 2021 (+332% over three years), with Russians remaining the largest group of foreign students, followed by Indian and Nigerian cohorts.

UNDESA data on the resident migrant stock portray a historically rooted structure: in 2024, 712,550 migrants lived in Serbia, 96% originating from Europe, mainly from Bosnia and Herzegovina (39%), Croatia (31%), Montenegro (8%), and North Macedonia (5%),  while Russian (2%) and Ukrainian (1.5%) nationals represented newer but smaller shares.

Forced displacement continues to shape Serbia’s migration profile. The country hosted almost 618,000 refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia after the conflicts of the 1990s, and by 2023 roughly 25,000 remained, the reduction stemming mainly from long-term integration and naturalisation rather than large-scale return or resettlement. Furthermore, in 2024, 194,171 persons displaced from the Autonomous Province of Kosovo* and Metohija were living in Serbia. Recent asylum application numbers remain modest, with 196 registered in 2023 and 219 in 2024. The main countries of origin in 2024 were Syria (16%), Türkiye (14%), and Cuba (13%), compared with Russia and Burundi in 2023, while Cuba remained among the top three in both years. Only seven protection decisions were positive – four granting refugee status and three subsidiary protection – resulting in a recognition rate of 12%. As of June 2024, Serbia hosted 24,862 refugees. In addition, in 2024, temporary protection was granted to 355 Ukrainians and extended to 679 more. Ukrainians can remain in Serbia visa-free for 90 days and those with temporary protection status can access public services such as health care,  education and accommodation.

Border-control data suggest tightening entry management: 4,716 people were denied entry to Serbia in 2024, 17% more than in 2023, predominantly citizens of Türkiye, with decisions issued mainly at Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport and the Serbia-Bosnia and Herzegovina land crossing, most often due to unclear purpose of stay or suspected misuse of visa-free travel.

In 2023, Serbia adopted a new National Program and Action Plan to Counter Trafficking in Human Beings (2024-2029) and strengthened victim identification mechanisms. That year, 58 victims were identified, primarily women and children, including foreign nationals. Most cases involved labour exploitation (35), followed by sexual exploitation (13) and multiple forms of exploitation (10), with foreign victims originating from Burundi, India, Iran, Montenegro, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

In recent years, Serbia has advanced the alignment of its migration governance with the EU acquis as part of the accession process. Legislative amendments adopted in 2023 extended temporary residence permits from one to three years, shortened eligibility for permanent residence from five to three years, and allowed migrant workers to change employers within 30 days of contract termination. The full implementation of the Law on Foreigners introduced a unified residence and work permit procedure aligned with the EU standard format for non-EU nationals. Serbia also began issuing travel documents to refugees in line with the 1951 Refugee Convention.

Operational cooperation on border management intensified in 2024 with the signing of a Frontex agreement enabling joint operations and deployment of the standing corps along Serbia’s borders, particularly with non-EU neighbours. This complements existing bilateral and trilateral cooperation, including joint patrols with Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, and Romania, enhanced collaboration with Hungary on combating smuggling, and the Serbia-Austria-Hungary Trilateral Initiative launched in 2023 to strengthen controls along the North Macedonia border.

Serbia is party to several migration dialogues, including the Prague Process. It has endorsed both Global Compacts on Migration and Refugees, continues cooperation with the EUAA, joined the European Migration Network as an observer in 2023, and maintains an expanding network of readmission agreements with EU Member States, Western Balkan partners, and non-EU countries.