The Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) Migration Outlook presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2025. It also provides a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within, and from the region in 2026. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses selected developments across the twelve EECA countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research drawing on official statistics and publicly available data sources to ensure a grounded understanding of regional dynamics. 

This Outlook is structured in three parts. The first section places selected country and sub-regional developments in focus, examining migration-related developments in Ukraine amid the ongoing war, Moldova’s continuing response to hosting displaced persons from Ukraine and its progress towards EU accession, as well as recent migration dynamics in Armenia, and Central Asia. The second section analyses broader regional migration trends, including economic developments and remittance patterns, forced displacement and international protection, labour migration to the EU and Russia, as well as irregular migration and return in relation to the EU. The final section reviews Ukraine’s progress in the EU accession process, including areas relevant to migration governance, and examines recent changes in Russia’s migration policy framework.

The 2026 Outlook edition highlights a region where migration is increasingly shaped by long-duration crises and governance choices rather than short-term shocks alone. As displacement becomes more protracted, labour mobility corridors are reconfigured, and digital tools expand state control over movement, the balance between protection, inclusion, economic needs, and security priorities will define migration outcomes across EECA in the year ahead.

The Outlook forecasts eight migration issues concerning the region to look out for in 2026:

• The uncertain trajectory of displacement from Ukraine
• The strategic dilemma of Ukrainian labour force in Europe
• Russia is developing one of the most digitalised migration control systems in the region
• Central Asia emerging as an important labour migration partner for Europe
• EECA workers are becoming structurally embedded in European labour markets
• Armenia navigating the long-term integration of displaced persons from Karabakh
• EECA region emerging as a potential transit corridor during regional crises
• The continued centrality - and vulnerability - of remittance-dependent economies

Read and download the full report in English here and in Russian here.

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