ICMPD Migration Outlook Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2026

The Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) Migration Outlook presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2025. It also provides a cautious outlook into areas and issues that may affect migration and mobility to, within, and from the region in 2026. In a non-exhaustive way, the publication addresses selected developments across the twelve EECA countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. The analysis is based on ICMPD’s regional expertise and desk research drawing on official statistics and publicly available data sources to ensure a grounded understanding of regional dynamics. 

The publication forecasts six migration issues to look out for in 2026:

• The uncertain trajectory of displacement from Ukraine
• The strategic dilemma of Ukrainian labour force in Europe
• Russia is developing one of the most digitalised migration control systems in the region
• Central Asia emerging as an important labour migration partner for Europe
• EECA workers are becoming structurally embedded in European labour markets
• Armenia navigating the long-term integration of displaced persons from Karabakh
• EECA region emerging as a potential transit corridor during regional crises
• The continued centrality - and vulnerability - of remittance-dependent economies