This analytical report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows. Countries covered: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo*.

The analysis shows that governance-driven migration management - not fertility - is the decisive factor. In the EU Integration scenario, improved institutions, return migration and regulated labour inflows slow population loss. In the Isolation scenario, demographic decline accelerates, labour shortages intensify and dependence on poorly integrated foreign workers grows, alongside rising exposure to non-EU geopolitical actors. 

For more information and recommendations, check the full publication:

-> here in English 

-> here in Russian

Our Repository contains the latest publications of the Migration Observatory and Training Academy of the Prague Process.

Subscribe to the Prague Process mailing list here in order to keep up to date with the latest developments outlined in our Quarterly Review.

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.