Western Balkans 2035: Demographic Resilience and Strategic Migration Planning under EU Integration and Isolation Scenarios

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo* are entering a critical demographic decade. Persistent emigration of young and skilled workers, combined with low fertility and rapid population ageing, is driving structural population decline that immigration alone cannot offset. This report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows.

The analysis shows that governance-driven migration management – not fertility – is the decisive factor. In the EU Integration scenario, improved institutions, return migration and regulated labour inflows slow population loss. In the Isolation scenario, demographic decline accelerates, labour shortages intensify and dependence on poorly integrated foreign workers grows, alongside rising exposure to non-EU geopolitical actors. The region’s demographic resilience will depend on its capacity to retain and attract talent, manage immigration effectively and embed migration within a broader development and EU-alignment strategy.

*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.