ICMPD Migration Outlook 2024

In a year full of European, national, and regional elections, the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) expects migration to be a pivotal topic. While many governments implement quick fixes ahead of their electoral cycles, opposition parties are tying their campaigns to migration-related promises. ICMPD’s 2024 Migration Outlook report forecasts record displacement levels resulting from war and conflict, leading to a further securitization of migration and offshoring of asylum procedures, as well as a rise in secondary movements. These developments are taking place while labour migration is ‘coming of age’ in Europe.

The report forecasts ten migration issues to look out for in 2024:

1. New record displacement levels due to war and conflict
2. The intertwining of geopolitics and migration
3. A further securitization of migration
4. A rise in secondary movements
5. A growing number of migrants in countries in crisis
6. Migration's pivotal role on election campaigns
7. The EU’s emphasis on external processing of asylum
8. Labour migration’s ‘coming of age’ in Europe
9. The economic integration of Ukrainians under temporary protection
10. Changes to EU visa policy to reduce irregular arrivals